A pattern repeats itself in Donbass as predictable as the weather, shooting, then more talking, then more money and do it all again. But that may change soon after Russia’s announcement last night that Trump is ready to compromise on Ukraine.
These days ahead of strategically important meetings, such as that with the G7 leaders, Poroshenko creates the motivation to implement the scenario of pressure on the Donbass Republic presidents regarding the fulfillment of Minsk Agreements.
The current escalation in Donbass is yet another stage show, aimed at having it solved through the recognition of Americans as a party to the negotiations and making Ukraine negotiate with the Donbass republics directly to achieve a settlement.
The thing is that Ukraine accuses Russia of escalating the situation, saying Donbass allegedly violates the ceasefire deal and shells civilian neighborhoods. Extremely powerful shellings, with the use of bombs and missiles, are brought up to the table. But rarely does anyone even mention the ICBM weapons of mass destruction Poroshenko has used on women and children here.
That’s how Ukraine turns everything upside down: It delivers allegations that it’s the Donbass forces who strike first, leading the other side to return fire, which Kiev says threatens to turn into a large-scale offensive. Kiev claims that the situation could trigger an all-out war. But you note, despite 100,000 plus Kiev troops outside of Donetsk, no mass assault is launched upon the city.
These were exactly the arguments Poroshenko voiced during his talks with Merkel when he visited Brussels, and earlier during his telephone conversations with Macron and Trump. All Western players agree that it is necessary to implement the Minsk Agreements. This is normal, what is not-is at no time in 2 years has anybody said to Poroshenko, keep your word or lose your money. They will hold him accountable on pensions and corruption, but not on killing his own citizens, they view themselves as “untermensch” or “eastern euro white trash.”
Poroshenko now assumes that they will be implemented according to the Ukrainian scenario, which primarily involves the recognition of Americans as a party to the conflict. He wants America to sit down at the table with Donbass to achieve a settlement. This is good if you live in Donetsk, the Trump administration is fed up with billions of dollars lost and a side show war in Donbass screwing up trillions of dollars at stake with Russia in business ventures globally.
Look how the situation has been changing: when there was no increase in shellings, there suddenly emerges some shelling in Avdeevka; that is Ukraine trying to accuse Donbass of sabotage, which the West always fears.
This is always the same way Poroshenko trys to achieve his goals – that is, by escalating and radicalizing the situation. And it is only done through a hostilities format: new shellings and ever more grave threats.
What is happening now, perfectly fits into the Ukrainian strategy. Donbass should expose such plans and provide such information at the international level, in the media, and in the diplomatic format, definitely confirming it with facts on when and how these attacks occur, and what the consequences are.
The Americans have had enough of Kiev excuses. Soon they will make Kiev keep Minsk, by force of a different kind. They will have no need to topple the Poroshenko regime or invade Ukraine for a desired outcome. A simple phone call cutting off the money flow to the Poroshenko crime family and this nightmare for all concerned is ended.